Is a New Bitcoin Bull Market Starting? Senate Key Vote and On-Chain Signals Explained

#Introduction

Bitcoin's price has risen rapidly recently, and the market is repricing expectations for policy implementation and recovering on-chain demand. The Senate is about to vote on the crypto market Clarity Act, multiple financial institutions have publicly voiced support, and on-chain indicators are strengthening in tandem, sparking discussion about the next bull market.

#Policy catalyst: Clarity Act vote date set

The Senate has scheduled a vote on the Clarity Act for September 15. The bill, which emerged from bipartisan compromise, is expected to receive more than 60 votes. The administration and regulators have met recently, sending an urgent signal to "finalize clear rules as soon as possible." Industry insiders say the bill draws boundaries for banks and crypto firms while giving banks room to launch new businesses.

#Industry push: Exchange and brokerage executives speak out

A mainstream exchange CEO said in a media interview that the bill's passage prospects are optimistic, with both sides having secured about 90% of their demands. He also predicted Bitcoin could reach $300,000 to $400,000 by 2030, and there is a significant chance of hitting $100,000 by year-end.

An online brokerage CEO revealed that industry leaders continued communicating with lawmakers during the Senate recess, even pushing the bill forward at 3 a.m. Several financial giants, including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, BNY Mellon, Fidelity, and BlackRock, have publicly supported the bill. They believe clear rules are an opportunity rather than a threat, but a few banks remain cautious due to competition concerns.

#On-chain indicators: A bottoming structure is forming

Bitcoin has reclaimed its 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2025; the previous two times it retook this average both kicked off bull cycles. Spot and perpetual futures demand both turned positive simultaneously for the first time since the October 2025 high. The market recently saw a large-scale short squeeze, and the $60,000–$65,000 range has formed a strong cost basis support, with the bottom significantly higher than in the previous cycle.

#Narrative shift: From store of value to putting the financial system on-chain

One industry observer noted that narratives have kept evolving over past cycles: from store of value, programmable public chains, DeFi/NFTs, memecoins, to this cycle potentially shifting toward putting the entire financial system on-chain, enabling 24/7 cross-border settlement. Tokenized stock market capitalization surpassed $465 million, hitting a weekly all-time high, showing rising demand for on-chain equity assets. Another public chain founder said the crypto market needs a new narrative beyond "faster and cheaper" to attract larger-scale users and capital.

#Summary

Policy expectations, institutional support, and on-chain indicators are resonating, lifting near-term risk appetite and providing long-term upside for regulated crypto assets and tokenized stocks. The market still needs to watch the September 15 vote result and whether spot and perpetual demand can persist.