First Crypto Bull Market Since 2020 May Have Started: Bitcoin Weekly Key Resistance and Pullback Scenarios
Bitcoin weekly resistance and macro cycle point to first expansion bull market since 2020; pullback possible, with key support/resistance and strategy.
The crypto market is at a critical turning point: Bitcoin is approaching strong resistance at the 50-week moving average on the weekly chart, while macro-level business cycle indicators—such as the copper-to-gold ratio and PMI—are flashing economic expansion signals. Market analysis suggests this could mark the start of the first economic expansion-driven crypto bull market since 2020, but short-term volatility and pullback risks cannot be ignored.
#Bitcoin Weekly Resistance: The 50-Week Moving Average Is Key
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin is currently near the 50-week moving average, a key area that has triggered multiple reversals in the past. The last time Bitcoin touched this resistance level was in February 2023, and the market subsequently rallied. However, analysts note that rally was not a true economic expansion bull market; it was driven more by market sentiment and regulatory expectations.
This time, however, the macro backdrop has materially changed: PMI expansion readings have climbed above 55, and the copper-to-gold ratio has begun to recover from its lows. Such signals typically correspond to the business cycle shifting from contraction to expansion. Accordingly, the market view is that the true crypto bull market may have only just begun—not ended.
#BTC vs Gold: A Tool to Validate the Economic Expansion Bull Market
The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio (BTC/gold) is highly correlated with the expansion/contraction phase of the business cycle. During contraction periods, Bitcoin tends to perform flat relative to gold; once the expansion phase begins, the ratio often stages a strong breakout.
At present, the BTC/gold ratio has just emerged from its contraction range and has yet to make a new all-time high. Analysts believe that when the ratio truly takes off and records a new all-time high, it will serve as confirmation of the economic expansion bull market. This perspective helps filter out short-term noise and capture medium- to long-term trends.
#Short-Term Pullback Scenario: Support Areas and Volatility Management
On the daily chart, after breaking above the 200-day moving average, Bitcoin's pullback to the moving average is a common technical correction. Bitcoin is currently priced around $79,000, with the first support area near $70,000, where the 20-week moving average and the 200-day moving average converge.
If a deeper pullback occurs, the $60,000 or even $50,000 zones are not out of the question, but analysts stress this is not the base-case scenario. Given the high volatility of crypto assets, investors should prepare mentally and manage position sizing to avoid making irrational decisions during sharp short-term swings.
#Upside Breakout Path: $80,000 and Higher Targets
$80,000 is currently a major resistance level for Bitcoin. Once it is decisively broken, Bitcoin will move above all weekly moving averages (including the 50-week and 200-week MAs) and may test the $85,000–$90,000 consolidation zone.
If market sentiment cooperates, a short squeeze could drive the price rapidly toward $90,000 or even near $100,000. However, analysts caution that the breakout will not happen overnight; it requires confirmation on the daily chart structure, and traders should avoid chasing the price blindly at resistance.
#Ethereum and Altcoins: Concurrent Resistance and Structural Opportunities
Ethereum is also facing weekly-level resistance, with its price currently near the 200-week and 50-week moving averages. If resistance holds, a short-term pullback could target support areas at $2,100, $2,000, or $1,900, potentially forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that sets up for a later breakout.
The ETH/BTC ratio is still consolidating between the 50-week and 20-week moving averages and has not yet given a clear breakout signal. Historically, after bottoming and consolidating, the ratio tends to stage a strong rally when economic expansion unfolds. Among altcoins, Solana, Cardano, and SUI are all in accumulation or resistance-testing phases. Analysts believe that if the economic expansion backdrop holds, these assets have significant long-term upside potential.
#Strategy Reference: Managing Risk Amid Volatility
Taking a comprehensive view, weekly resistance levels imply that near-term downside pressure objectively exists, but the macro cycle's shift toward economic expansion supports the medium- to long-term trend. Investors may focus on the following points:
- Key support: Bitcoin at $70,000 and $60,000; Ethereum at $2,100 / $2,000 / $1,900.
- Key resistance: Bitcoin at $80,000; Ethereum at the weekly 50/200-week MAs.
- Macro confirmation: Whether the BTC/gold ratio breaks its previous high and whether PMI continues to expand.
- Execution approach: Consider placing limit buy orders to build positions in tranches, or use a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy to reduce the impact of volatility.
The above analysis is based on technical and macro indicators and does not constitute investment advice. The market is highly volatile, and investors should make independent decisions based on their own risk tolerance.
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