Bitcoin Breaks Key Moving Averages: 6-Year Real Bull Signal?

Market sentiment has shifted markedly in recent weeks. Previously, most investors expected Bitcoin to bottom out in October and possibly fall to $40,000 or even lower. However, as the price rebounded strongly, a growing number of views began to suggest that the bottom may have already arrived earlier than expected. In just one week, bearish sentiment faded quickly, and some previously cautious analysts also began to adjust their outlook.

#Key Moving Averages Break Out Across the Board, Technical Setup Turns Bullish

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin closed above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages on the daily chart, marking its first return above the 200-day moving average since falling below $110,000 in October 2025. This signal is seen by the market as an important sign of a short-term trend reversal.

Additionally, some analysts believe Bitcoin is forming an “Adam and Eve” double bottom pattern, with the neckline around $83,000. Once the neckline is broken on a decisive basis, the pattern will be confirmed, opening further upside. On the weekly chart, a rare candle with a gain of more than 20% has appeared, and the monthly RSI has formed a bullish crossover after deeply oversold conditions, similar to the signals seen in early 2023 when the market transitioned from bear to bull. This indicates that medium- to long-term momentum is building.

#U.S. Treasury Buyback Program Could Be the Next Catalyst for Bitcoin

On the macro front, the U.S. Treasury is reportedly considering using about $1 trillion in Treasury General Account (TGA) funds for a long-term Treasury buyback program. The previously announced $4 billion buyback size was described by some analysts as “using a cup of water to put out a kitchen fire” — not only failing to calm the market but potentially intensifying concerns. If a larger amount is deployed, it could push down long-term yields and release liquidity, creating a more favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. This potential policy move is seen as the fundamental catalyst Bitcoin has long awaited.

#Why This Could Be the First “Real Bull Market” in Six Years

Looking back at the previous cycle, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of about $125,000 in 2025, but the gain was less than 2x, and it was driven more by ETF inflows and election trading than by genuine economic expansion and business cycle resonance. Compared with the full-scale bull markets of 2017 and 2021, the 2025 rally felt “flat” or even “boring.” Now, market structure, technical signals, and macro liquidity expectations are beginning to align, leading some to argue that the first “real bull market” in six years — one supported by the economic cycle and characterized by broad speculation and euphoria — may be getting underway.

Measured in gold, Bitcoin failed to make a meaningful new high in the previous cycle, further indicating that an expansionary bull market had not truly unfolded. Now, multiple long-term chart patterns (such as a cup-and-handle pattern) are aligning with technical indicators, and the potential liquidity release from the U.S. Treasury provides a foundation for a real bull market.

#Pullback Risks and Market Outlook

Despite the overall shift to a positive trend, short-term pullback risk should not be ignored. After breaking above the $83,000 resistance, Bitcoin may face a retest to confirm the breakout, or even a retest of the 200-day moving average around $70,000. Most analysts believe, however, that as long as key support holds, the probability of further upside is higher, and the maximum pain zone could be above $100,000.

Some model data show that Bitcoin has roughly a 25% probability of first pulling back to $50,000, but also about a 25% probability of reaching $100,000 by year-end. As market sentiment recovers, the latter probability could rise quickly. For investors, waiting for a deeper pullback (such as $40,000) could mean missing the opportunity, because once a real trend forms, it often does not offer a comfortable entry point.