Before PCE and Nvidia Earnings: A Multi-Asset Trend Comparison of BTC, Altcoins, and US Stocks

As the US PCE inflation data and Nvidia earnings approach, crypto market sentiment is turning cautious. Bitcoin is oscillating within a key range, and some altcoins are showing oversold bounce signals; US stocks and crude oil are also reaching key levels. This article organizes current market focus across four dimensions: macro, BTC, altcoins, and traditional assets.

#1. Macro Events and Market Background

PCE data is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and funds tend to seek safety ahead of its release.
Before Nvidia's earnings, the market may sell off early on fears of disappointing results; if the report meets or beats expectations, risk assets could rebound.
US Treasury yields have not fallen significantly despite multiple intervention signals, indicating high macro uncertainty.
The stablecoin dominance indicator is at its lowest level since November 2023, showing extremely optimistic risk appetite; if it rebounds, it could trigger a crypto market correction.

#2. BTC: Key Support and Resistance

The market found initial buying support in the $78,400–$70,000 area and is now seeing a slight rebound.
If it weakens further, watch the $78,600 VWAP and weekend low area below, where untested liquidity exists.
The $83,000–$84,000 area above is key resistance and a potential shorting zone; on the 3-day chart, the high near $82,800 overlaps with macro Fibonacci resistance.
If a hard rejection occurs, Bitcoin could retrace to the $50,000 area, but this would need to happen quickly.
Liquidation data shows liquidity on both sides; short-term volatility may intensify.

#3. Altcoins: Key Levels Amid Divergence

Altcoin performance is diverging: some tokens have fallen to support areas in the recent sell-off and have a chance for a technical rebound, while others remain bearish. The following are key level references for major coins:

Aptos: stabilizing near 5.886, stop loss reference 5.64–5.65; if it bounces, target the 200-day moving average.
Beam: small position attempt, stop loss 0.0014, watch value area low support.
SEI: near support area, can take a small long position and wait for a bounce.
BCH: watch entry near 254, stop loss 243, medium risk.
TAO: bullish if it holds the 200-day MA and $230 support, with upside targets 268–270; if it breaks below 230, look down to the 50-day MA.
Ethena: 1-hour bullish divergence, resistance near VWAP; can try a short-term bounce with strict stop loss.
Hyperliquid: if it breaks the horizontal level near 83.3, could rise to 86 or even 93; a pullback to around 80.38 is momentum support.
Solana: consider shorting near 102, stop loss 103, wait for lower levels to reassess longs.
Triple V: hold, stop loss below 17, target higher.
Zcash: short-term bearish, with 77.3–77.0 and 71.5–78.0 below as potential bounce zones.
pump.fun: overall bearish, 35–32 area may provide support; avoid chasing longs before a clear reversal.
Pepe: can watch for longs in the 37.5–36 area, but beware of fake breakouts.
Brett: can try small positions in the 52.9–52.2 area, medium probability.
SUI: watch for longs near 75.75.
Arrow: 509–498 is potential support; if it breaks the previous high, can follow the momentum long.
Near: 186 area and 181.2–179 (50-day MA) are bounce zones.
Virtual: 73–70 is a higher-conviction entry area.
Pingu: watch the 86–83.7 area, do not trade in between, watch volatility.

All the above levels are technical analysis references and do not constitute investment advice.

#4. US Stocks and Commodities

The S&P 500 is approaching the 7,600 support area; if it touches that level, a strong rebound could occur.
Nasdaq missed the short-term short, wait for higher levels; the Dow short near 53,740 has played out.
Crude oil is in a descending wedge, with 81.2–80.4 as a reversal zone where a technical bounce may occur.
Nvidia: if it continues to decline before earnings, consider building a long position in batches, expecting a 7–10% rebound after the report.
Intel: there are reports that US politicians are buying; around $65 is a medium-to-long-term value area worth watching.

#5. Summary

The short-term market is event-driven, and the PCE data and Nvidia earnings could act as catalysts for directional choice. If selling occurs before the data, BTC and some altcoins could rebound at key support areas; if risk appetite recovers after the data, the market could repair quickly. It is recommended to strictly control position sizing and wait for signal confirmation.