Why Is Bitcoin Consolidating? SkyBridge Founder: Three Factors Weighing on Price, Halving Cycle May Push It Back Above $100,000

Bitcoin has recently fallen into an unusually low-volatility range, with prices oscillating within a narrow band for an extended period. In an interview at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, SkyBridge Capital founder and managing partner Anthony Scaramucci said there are three structural factors behind this consolidation, while he remains bullish on Bitcoin's long-term trajectory and expects prices to return above $100,000 in the future. The following is a summary of his core views, representing market analysis only and not investment advice.

#Why Is Bitcoin Trading Sideways? Three Factors Weighing on Price

Scaramucci noted that the past nine weeks have been Bitcoin's tightest trading range in five years; since the geopolitical conflict erupted in February, Bitcoin's price has barely moved. He summarized three suppressing factors:

Miners shifting hashrate to AI: A large number of miners are redirecting computing power to artificial intelligence, disrupting the hashrate and objectively reducing Bitcoin's price volatility.
Capital outflows to the AI sector: Not just Bitcoin, capital across the entire cryptocurrency market is flowing into AI-related assets.
Tail end of the four-year cycle: Most crypto market participants believe in the four-year cycle. Bitcoin has now entered the late stage of a bear market, with about 18–19 months until the next halving; supply has not yet contracted, so prices naturally lack upward momentum.

#Halving Cycle and the Bullish Case

Despite the lackluster short-term performance, Scaramucci remains "firmly bullish" on Bitcoin's long-term outlook. He believes that as the next halving cycle arrives, the supply of new coins will decrease, and the supply-demand gap will tighten again, driving prices higher.

He expects Bitcoin to "return above $100,000," but the process may be a slow "bottoming out," and investors dislike this kind of prolonged sideways movement. From a historical cycle perspective, this bear market has seen a drawdown of about 55%, which is relatively mild compared to deeper pullbacks in the past; this may suggest that a large number of net buyers are accumulating at lower levels in preparation for the next bull market.

#Potential Catalysts and Quantum Computing Risks

Short-term catalyst comparison:

Supply halving: High certainty, but still far off—about 18–19 months away.
The CLARITY Act: Passage probability is roughly 50-50, with possible progress in September; it is beneficial for the industry long term, but unlikely to be a "rocket-fuel" catalyst in the short term.
Quantum computing risk: Some investors worry that quantum computing could eventually break cryptographic algorithms, but Scaramucci believes core developers are capable of addressing this; it is not a major risk, though retail investors may be concerned due to insufficient research.

Once the CLARITY Act is passed, it will provide banks with more opportunities to offer cryptocurrency services, change the way U.S. investors hold Bitcoin, and reduce the back-and-forth of bipartisan regulatory policy. Scaramucci stressed that while the bill is positive in the long run, he will not make unrealistic short-term promises on TV like a "perma-bull."

#Views on World Liberty Financial's Banking Charter

Regarding the news that World Liberty Financial, affiliated with the Trump family, obtained a conditional banking charter, Scaramucci believes the impact on the overall market is minimal. He said that family members of a president should not be barred from business activities simply because of that relationship, but potential conflicts of interest do need to be carefully scrutinized.

If the CLARITY Act passes, money center banks, regional banks, and community banks will all enter the same arena, and it will become a rational choice for crypto companies to apply for banking charters as well. At that point, traditional finance and crypto finance may see further integration.

Overall, Scaramucci's view is that Bitcoin will continue to bottom out in the short term, while the halving cycle and regulatory clarity are expected to push prices back above $100,000 over the long term, though this may take a considerable amount of time and will require attention to structural changes such as hashrate migration and capital flows. The above content is only market opinion sharing and does not constitute investment advice.